EURAUD Analysis – Movement impact

Date published - 6 Jun 2022

Australian elections, employment data and NATO risks

Key points

• EUR/AUD price fluctuations are expected to worsen due to fundamental macroeconomic risks in Asia and Europe.
• Australian elections and jobs reports could spark Australian volatility after poor Chinese data.
• NATO court with Sweden and Finland may trigger fears of a Russian reaction

What Impacts the movement of EUR/AUD?

The EUR/AUD price movement is positively and negatively correlated to several factors, assets and other Forex currency pairs. Here are its main current correlations:

Interest rate spread: Of course, the differential in key interest rates set by the ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia strongly correlates with this currency pair.

Commodity prices:The Australian dollar is also strongly positively correlated with the cost of certain commodities such as ores, a significant world producer, and the price of gold, iron, coal, and uranium.

Global economic health: Global economic growth is positively correlated with the Australian dollar as the nation is a significant exporter and hence needs other economies for its development.

Fundamental analysis

The War in Ukraine

The issue of the war in Ukraine remains on the agenda. The conflict is still going on, and it has many economic and geopolitical implications for the Old Continent. The Russian president has also said that Finland's decision to join NATO was a "mistake" and that it would have "negative consequences". The escalation of the war tensions in Ukraine and the probable admission of Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could amplify the shock waves.

Australian elections

Australians will vote for a new government on Saturday, putting Scott Morrison's conservative government to rest. The centre-left Labor Party led by Anthony Albanese is slightly ahead in the polls. Cost-of-living considerations and national defence are the main concerns of the public.

Australian employment

• Australian employment data will likely be a significant indicator crossing the wires this week, with economists expecting 30,000 jobs for April.
• The labour force participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.4%, while the unemployment rate will reach 3.9%.
• With wage growth fanning the flames, the jobs report could be crucial to the price movement of the Australian dollar.
• If they reflect a tighter labor market, the RBA could raise rates more aggressively.
• If Chinese data continues to weaken due to anti-Covid lock-in measures, it could send a chill down the spine of the Australian economy.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the EUR/AUD price is on a short-term bullish trend, initiated after reaching the support at 1.43, but we face significant resistance at 1.52. If we manage to break it on a daily close, the price will go up, which I doubt because of the weakness of the Euro.

Still, everything could happen, especially if the war on Ukraine escalates or if we have a surprise in the Australian elections.

The prices are below 200 MA, and the primary trend is bearish, which could pressure the prices to go down to retest the support at 1.43. As you can see on the chart, we have a little trend line for the bullish movement from April, the break of this line is a strong indicator of a bearish scenario to rejoin the 1.43 level.

• The RSI is at 42.519, which sends a strong sell signal on this pair.
• The short and medium-term stochastics show a neutral signal on this pair, during the long-term stochastics show an oversold signal.
• The MACD is negative at -0.024, signaling a solid sell sentiment on the EUR/AUD currency pair.
• The simple and exponential moving averages also send a strong bearish signal over all time frames.
• The following technical resistances for this currency pair are at 1.4360 and 1.37, and the next resistances are at 1.5216 and 1.5703.