EURAUD Analysis – Critical week ahead

Date published - 6 Jun 2022

Robust economy, tighter policy, risk aversion

Key points

• Risk Aversion Drives Euro price
• The Australian economy is robust
• RBA tightens monetary policy

Fundamental analysis

The Australian economy holds up well.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had been among the least hawkish of the major central banks, but it shifted its stance this year and raised interest rates for the first time in over a decade in May.

Officials raised rates by 25 basis points and announced further tightening, saying that reducing inflation "will require a further increase in interest rates in the period ahead. Today's gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and a strong labor market and high inflation seem to support the prospect of a further interest rate hike by the RBA. The bank's next monetary policy decision is expected next Tuesday, June 7th.

The Eurozone's annual inflation rate reached 8.1% in May, up from 7.4% and above market expectations of 7.7%.

In addition, the EU decided to ban Russian oil imports by sea but made a temporary exception for pipeline imports to appease countries like Hungary that opposed a total ban.

Critical Week Ahead

In the next week, both the RBA and the ECB will share their interest rate decision (7 and 9 June, respectively) and the Eurozone GDP on June 8th.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the EUR/AUD price is on a short-term and long term bearish trend. After breaking the little support trend line at 1.49, we are facing minor support at 1.48, which might hold, considering that the inflation is very high across Europe, and the ECB might raise rates starting in July.

However, overall the sentiment is still bearish, and we have a high probability of going to 1.45 before retesting the significant support at 1.43, which hold for more than five years.

• The RSI is at 43.97, which sends a strong sell signal on this pair.
• The short and medium-term stochastics show a neutral signal on this pair, while the long-term stochastics show an oversold signal.
• The MACD is negative at -0.029, signaling a solid sell sentiment on the EUR/AUD currency pair.
• The simple and exponential moving averages also send a strong bearish signal over all time frames.
• The following technical supports for this currency pair are at 1.4360 and 1.37, and the next resistances are at 1.5216 and 1.5703.